The race to succeed Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister is increasingly looking like a two-way battle between former finance minister Chrystia Freeland and ex-central banker Mark Carney.

The field further narrowed on Tuesday after Christy Clark, the former premier of British Columbia, announced she would not be entering the Liberal Party leadership contest, in part due to her lack of fluency in French. Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne also bowed out of the race.

Liberals will decide on a new leader by March 9, which gives the winner of the contest about two weeks before Parliament returns. They can call an election immediately themselves, or else the government is expected to fall on a non-confidence vote soon afterwards, triggering one regardless.

Many other senior cabinet ministers who were expected to be contenders have already ruled themselves out, including Dominic LeBlanc, Melanie Joly, Anita Anand and Steven MacKinnon.

There are others who are said to be weighing bids, including government House Leader Karina Gould and Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson.

But with an entry deadline of Jan. 23 approaching, all signs are pointing to a race defined by Freeland, Trudeau’s former deputy who quit in devastating fashion last month, and Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.

Multiple polls, including one by Nanos Research Group for CTV News, have suggested Freeland and Carney are the top choices of Canadians to lead the Liberals.

There may also be some long-shot candidacies, such as from Liberal lawmakers Chandra Arya and Jaime Battiste, as well as businessman Frank Baylis, but to get on the ballot they face a steep challenge in raising the $350,000 entry fee on short notice.

Trump looms large

Over the coming days, Freeland and Carney are both expected to formally announce their leadership campaigns.

Freeland will announce hers before Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, said a person familiar with her plans. She will frame herself as the best leader for countering Trump’s threat of economy-wide 25 per cent tariffs on Canada, given her experience leading the government’s trade negotiations during Trump’s first term.

In particular, Freeland will commit to “dollar-for-dollar” retaliation if Trump imposes any tariffs, said the person. Freeland’s policy proposal may not only take the form of tariffs, the person added, but potentially other forms of retaliation in order to effectively match the value of Trump’s actions.

Carney is expected to launch his campaign later this week, with the Hill Times newspaper reporting it will come in Edmonton, where he grew up.

His entry sets up a potentially awkward race against Freeland. In December, Trudeau tried to recruit Carney to replace her as finance minister, which led to her stinging resignation. Carney — who is also godfather to Freeland’s son — didn’t take the role.

The former central banker all but confirmed his leadership plans in an interview on The Daily Show on Monday night, describing himself as an “outsider” to Trudeau’s government but someone who has deep experience handling crises and has “a plan to deal with the challenges in the here and now.”

Carney currently holds a portfolio of private sector and nonprofit roles including as chairman of Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. and of Bloomberg Inc.

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party — currently leading in the polls — has pushed back on Carney’s self-portrayal as an outsider, saying he supported Trudeau’s national carbon tax in the past and took up a post as an economic adviser to the Liberal Party in September.

“He praised the punishing Trudeau carbon tax, even calling it a model for the world in his book,” Melissa Lantsman, the Conservatives’ deputy leader, said in an emailed statement.

—With assistance from Thomas Seal.

Bloomberg.com